Warming or cooling of the climate. Global cooling: analytics, scientists’ opinions, forecasts. It is unlikely that this global cooling can destroy humanity
As a result of research solar system and our planet, scientists have found that in this moment There is a looming threat of global cooling of the Earth. This problem lies in the fact that there is a process of gradual cooling of the earth's surface, as a result of which the annual temperature drops by several degrees. If a climate catastrophe occurs, the planet may become glaciated, as it was during the Ice Age.
History of the problem of global cooling
The last time there was a period of global cooling on the planet was in the 17th century. At that time the temperature dropped to an unimaginable level low indicators. The first manifestations of global cooling were recorded by an English scientist, and in his honor this period was called the “Maunder Minimum,” which lasted from 1645 to 1715. According to eyewitnesses, even the Thames River froze.
In the 1940-1970s, the hypothesis of a worldwide cooling of the planet dominated. When, as a result of the stormy economic development and industrial activity, the air temperature began to increase rapidly, and scientists began to talk about global warming. Soon this hypothesis began to be widely discussed, and the information reached the common population. Thus, the cooling theory was forgotten for some time.
Experts started talking about the dangers of nuclear winter again when the threat of a nuclear attack on cities arose. In addition, this hypothesis is now confirmed by new research by scientists. They discovered some black spots on the sun, and in 2030 a new solar cycle will begin, along with global cooling. This will happen because the two waves of rays will reflect each other, so the Earth will not be able to heat up with the energy of the Sun. Then the planet may experience another short-term “ice age.” There will be severe frosts for 10 years. Astronomers predict that atmospheric temperatures will drop by 60%.
A group of researchers says that neither this approaching cold snap, nor those that are expected in the future, can be stopped by people. While some are worried about global warming, the threat of an “ice age” is getting much closer. It's time to buy warm clothes, heaters and invent ways to survive in the harsh conditions of low frosts. There is very little time left to prepare for the approaching cold. However, these are just scientists’ assumptions; we will see the results soon.
Increasingly, news headlines are full of flashy names about weather anomalies: either in one corner of the globe an abnormal amount of precipitation fell “for no reason,” or somewhere there was frost when it was not supposed to be there. An ordinary person, having read such information, is impressed for some period by what he read, without delving into the essence of the issue, then adapts to such headlines, which do not even think of slowing down in their colorfulness. A kind of movement of the Overton window. But most importantly, a person misses an important point - he does not delve into and understand what is happening with the weather.
In this article we will turn to the experience of scientists who know first-hand what is happening with the climate. We present the opinions of the following scientists on global cooling:
Kirill Georgievich Levi, Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Geography, Cartography and Geosystem Technologies, SB RAS Institute of the Earth's Crust, Irkutsk;
Viktor Ivanovich Voronin, Doctor of Biology, Director of the Siberian Institute of Physiology and Biochemistry of Plants, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk;
Yuri Sergeevich Malyshev, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, senior researcher at the Institute of Geography named after. Sochavy V.B. SB RAS, Irkutsk;
Vitaly Valentinovich Ryabtsev, ornithologist, candidate of biological sciences, Irkutsk;
Khabibullo Ismailovich Abdusamatov, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Soviet and Russian astrophysicist, Head of the Solar Space Research Sector of the Pulkovo Observatory, Gaos RAS Pulkovo Observatory, St. Petersburg;
Elena Petrovna Popova, senior researcher, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow.
Of course, the causes of climate change "from and to" to the human eye are not known. And given that weather monitoring has been going on for the past two centuries, what is 200 years throughout the Earth's existence? Absolutely - a drop in the ocean. But still some data are known to scientists.
At the end of the 20th - beginning of the 21st centuries, the opinions of scientists (as always) were divided into two camps: some argue that global warming is coming, others - global cooling. In order to understand what is happening in the present moment with the climate and what awaits us in the future, it is necessary to turn to the past. Let's consider the extreme period of the XIV-XIX centuries - the coldest in the last 2000 years, called the Small ice age(MLP), which is typical mainly for Western Europe.
MLP is divided into three phases:
1 phase- XIV-XV centuries. For cities in Western Europe, it is characterized by a slowing Gulf Stream, rainy summers and harsh winters.
Just imagine what happened in those days... The harsh climate depleted the fertile layer of the earth, making it impossible to grow grain. In summer, unripe grain crops, which for the most part predominated in the diet, rotted from excess moisture. Hungry winters followed: a lack of nutritious food and a lack of solar insolation (the flow of solar radiation to the surface, in this case, the Earth) affected people’s well-being. An economic crisis and mass epidemics broke out. Only those people were able to survive who, having stepped over their pride, combined their skills and abilities: some cooked food, others patched the roof.
From the 1370s, temperatures began to slowly rise. Relative warming was established in the 1440s, that is, almost 70 years later.
In the eastern territories North America it was extremely cold. The Midwest became a region of dust storms, with forests burning over vast areas during the summer. By the way, dust storms and smoke from fires are factors that prevent solar insolation.
The land of Greenland began to be covered with glaciers, and the summer thawing of the soil became increasingly short-lived.
2 phase- XVI century. Solar activity intensified, partially extinguishing the negative effect of the slowdown of the Gulf Stream. In Europe, an increase in average annual temperatures was again recorded, although the level of the previous climatic optimum was not reached. On February 19, 1600, there was a powerful eruption of the large volcano Huaynaputina (Huaynaputina), located in the volcanic highlands in southern Peru. Through clouds of volcanic dust, slow solar insolation reached the Earth in even smaller quantities.
3 phase- XVII - early XIX century - the coldest period of the MLP, which was marked by the fact that the global temperature dropped by 1-2 degrees Celsius. The decrease in the activity of the Gulf Stream coincided with the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715). In Europe, the average annual temperature dropped sharply, and two waves of cooling followed: the winter of 1664-1665 in France and Germany, when birds froze in the air; the second - 75 years later, in the 1740s.
Frozen: the Bosphorus Strait between Europe and Asia Minor, the Thames in Great Britain, the Danube, which stretches across Europe, the Seine in France, the Adriatic Sea, which is part Mediterranean Sea between the Apennine and Balkan peninsulas and multiple rivers on the territory of modern Russia.
Let us turn to the objects of art of artists of the 16th-19th centuries as irrefutable evidence that in many cities it was in fact very cold. The glaciation of the above rivers is depicted in the paintings of Pieter Bruegel the Elder, Lucas Carnach the Elder, Antoni Berstraten, as well as Abraham Hondius, who painted “The Frozen Thames” in 1677 (the date coincides with the Maunder Minimum), Joseph Charlemagne “Ice Fair on the Neva” in 1860 year, “Frozen Bosphorus under the snow” by Ivan Aivazovsky in 1874 and many others.
In January 2017, a meeting was held between a volunteer of the information and analytical portal “Geocenter.info” and a professor from the city of Irkutsk, Kirill Georgievich Levi, who shared information from scientific works on the topic of climate change (No. 1, No. 2, No. 3), which reveal the topic interaction of natural processes with solar activity.
“Now everyone is saying that Greenland and the Arctic basin are melting, the Northern Sea Route can be navigated... But this will not last long. The fact is that something similar happened in the 16th century, when the inhabitants of Arkhangelsk explored the northern regions of Siberia. They passed the Northern Sea Route in one navigation [ed. the shortest sea route between the European part of Russia and the Far East] on Kochs, on wooden sailing ships. After all, they didn’t have icebreakers. Now we are glad that the path has opened, but, most likely, this will not last long. In the northern regions of the Arctic, there is such a thing as the Great Siberian Polynya (a strip of open water and young ice that regularly forms behind the outer edge of fast ice in the area from Bolshoi Begichev Island in the Laptev Sea to the Bear Islands in the East Siberian Sea), which sometimes opens and sometimes closes. And this process is associated with the entry of fresh water into the ocean and its freezing into ice.”
Greenland - the “Green Land” - froze and became covered with an ice shell, Viking settlements finally disappeared from the island, and by the end of the 15th century permafrost was firmly established here.
Speaking of Vikings. Have you ever wondered why such a powerful ethnic group became extinct? Let us remember that the Vikings lived in the territory of modern Sweden, Denmark and Norway; in the 10th century, some of them migrated to Greenland and lived comfortably there.
Scientists conducted an analysis on the bone remains and found that at first the Viking diet consisted of 80% meat from domestic animals and 20% fish (mainly cod). These data indicate favorable climate. A simple food chain: the livestock ate grass, which was in abundance, the livestock population grew, the Vikings ate heavily. And closer to 1300, the ratio changed: a period of cooling began and the opportunity to raise animals was no longer present. The last schools of cod left the shores of Greenland and migrated to warmer currents. The Vikings were cut off by ice from Europe, from where ships arrived with the food they needed to survive.
Now let's look at another factor, the so-called human factor. For a whole century, the Vikings ignored the experience of the indigenous Eskimos living nearby, who adapted to the harsh climate and with difficulty, but endured the climatic hardships. The survival strategy was right under our noses! Now, adopt the experience and live... They did not adopt the experience of survival of the Eskimos, because they considered themselves more developed, and they were nicknamed “ugly dwarfs”... By 1460, the Vikings had completely died out.
Thus, during the Maunder Low, northern countries such as Finland and Sweden lost approximately half of their population due to migration and deaths from hunger and cold. These are known facts.
Thus, direct and indirect(independent of a person) The reasons for the occurrence of MLP are as follows:
Cosmic influence, decreased solar activity, Maunder minimum;
- slowdown of thermohaline circulation;
- the eruption of the Huaynaputina volcano and ash emissions made it difficult for solar radiation to penetrate a wide area.
Let us analyze the causes of MLP into their components. Cosmic influence.
In this case, one should turn to the thoughts expressed by the Danish physicist Henrik Svensmark (1958) and the British scientist Nigel Calder (1931-2014) from the book “Chilling stars. New theory of global climate change", 2007. Here are excerpts from this publication on the essence of the issue - the role of cosmic rays in controlling long-term climate change:
“Charged particles fly out of exploding stars like atomic bullets, and,breaking through the earth's atmosphere, leave cards along the way as proof of their lightning-fast visit. These calling cards are rare isotopes produced by nuclear reactions in the upper atmosphere. In reactions with nitrogen, which is part of the air, radioactive carbon, or carbon-14, is formed ... ", which, however, has been known for a long time. What happens next is: “...physicists have become convinced that the Sun, as the main guardian protecting the Earth from cosmic rays, (in the past) also behaved differently. The solar magnetic field reflects most of the galactic radiation before it penetrates into the space around us.Radioactive carbon fluctuations…» indicate changes “...in a sunny mood...”. Having analyzed the interaction of cosmic rays with the Earth’s atmosphere, Svensmark and Calder suggested that cosmic rays are directly involved in climate change and regulate the state of the planet’s cloud cover, an increase in the density of which inevitably leads to a decrease in insolation, cold snaps and an increase in ice cover.
“What is the solar screen that interferes with solar insolation formed from? From meteorite dust, volcanic emissions that sometimes reach a height of 70 km, dust storms that can raise dust into the air up to 7 km and smoke from fires. These particles collectively block the flow of solar energy.
A work published by the Danes on galactic radiation and its transformation gives an idea that a huge amount of solar and cosmic rays are flying from everywhere. The sun creates an interplanetary magnetic field that protects all the planets of the solar system from external influences, but the sun itself is subject to this influence. What's happening? When these cosmic rays enter the atmosphere, they begin to interact with atoms of atmospheric gases and break up into smaller rays. We are especially interested in neutrons; they are measured only in two regions: at the observatory in Moscow and at the observatory in Oulu, Finland. An increase in neutron fluxes leads to an increase in cloud density, and cloudiness plays a dual role. On the one hand, these gases are ionized and become concentrators for the formation of water bubbles in the lower layer of clouds (there are three of them in total). The lowest one interests us most, since this height is approximately 2000-2500 m, it feels right to us.
It turns out that the Earth is cooling on one side because it does not receive proper insolation due to high density clouds and at the same time receives a large amount of moisture and fresh water. Fresh water is very bad friends with ocean water, because the latter is denser and more energy-intensive. It heats up and holds heat, and fresh water cools down very quickly. Moreover, when they talk about global warming and global cooling, as a rule, cooling is preceded by warming. This warming causes those glaciers that lie on the polar caps and mountain ranges to melt and increase the discharge of fresh water into the ocean, the layer of fresh water begins to grow, it cools down very quickly and with a lack of insolation, glaciers begin to form again. Therefore, the ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic is subject to just such changes. And they, in fact, dictate the climate on Earth.”
At the same time, a decrease in global temperature leads to a decrease in the steric (density) level of the World Ocean, which is determined by the difference in the density of ocean waters, which depends on the difference in their temperature and salinity. So we can do first output: The periodicity of natural and climatic changes is due to joint variations in the intensity of the cosmic ray flux and solar activity.
By the way, similar information is also in the scientific report " ", 2014 :
“Global climate change on Earth is mainly a derivative of astronomical processes and their cyclicity. This cyclicity is inevitable. The geological history of our planet indicates that the Earth has repeatedly experienced similar phases of global climate change.”
Maunder minimum.
According to the calculations of the English astronomer Edward Walter Maunder (1851-1928), in the period 1645-1715. (over 70 years) there were only about 50 sunspots instead of the usual 40,000 - 50,000. The drop in solar activity during the period indicated by Maunder was confirmed by the analysis of carbon-14, which was mentioned above, as well as some other isotopes, for example, beryllium- 10 in glaciers and trees. During the Maunder minimum, a drop in the intensity of auroras and the speed of rotation of the Sun was observed.
From an interview with Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences K.G. Levi:
“What's going on in the atmosphere? Under the influence of galactic radiation, during a period when the magnetic and interplanetary fields are weakened, a very large amount of radiocarbon (14C) is formed due to the decay of nitrogen nuclei (14N). Radiocarbon begins to accumulate in living organisms, which is used as an element to date the death of certain biological objects.”
In addition to the Maunder minimum, over the past 2000 years, grand minima of solar activity are known, which are responsible for the coldest periods of time (the duration of the periods is given in parentheses): Oort (1010-1050), Wolf (1282-1342), Spörer (1420) -1540), (Maunder), Dalton (1790-1830) and the shallow Gnevyshev minimum at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries.
Slowing down of thermohaline circulation.
Let's start analyzing this block by finding out what thermohaline circulation (TC) is.
So, thermohaline circulation- large-scale oceanic circulation or conveyor in which the movement of water masses occurs due to a difference in water density formed due to the heterogeneity of the distribution of temperature and salinity in the ocean.
The very name of the term contains two factors that together determine the density sea water- temperature ( thermo) and salinity ( Halina). The TC is a global association of all existing currents of the World Ocean. Let's look at some of them.
It is worth paying attention to the fact that variations in solar activity through atmospheric and hydrosphere circulation determine changes in the size of ice cover in the polar regions of the Arctic (North Pole) and Antarctica (South Pole). It is the amount of precipitation and the temperature regime of the atmosphere that regulate the volume of accumulation and melting of ice sheets. To be fair, we note that the idea of solar influence on ice formation in the polar regions was expressed in 1918 by the German geographer, professor at higher scientific institutions in Kiel, Münster, Hamburg, Ludwig Mecking (1879-1952). He argued that the amount of ice in the seas varies, and that this is caused by variations in solar activity - periods of maximum solar activity contribute to a decrease in the amount of ice, and periods of minimum solar activity increase it.
Active melting of ice (which we are currently observing) leads to the fact that a huge mass of fresh, cold, dense water is carried away by the Labrador Current (LT), which is also a cold sea current. The trajectory of the current is between the coast of Canada and Greenland, directed southward from the Baffin Sea to the Newfoundland Bank. Near Newfoundland, the LT mixes with the warm Gulf Stream (G), deflecting it towards Europe. Cold waters dive under the G, that is, the process of desalination and cooling by runoff current occurs. When the degree of desalination reaches a certain level, the density of the LT waters decreases, it rises to the surface and blocks the road G, and the Gulf Stream is the “stove” of Western Europe.
Second conclusion: a chain of climatic events can be traced, which alternates between warming and melting of the polar caps and further cooling of ocean waters, global cooling and glaciation.
Let's figure out what the Gulf Stream is. Gulf Stream- a system of currents extending from the Florida Peninsula to Scandinavia, Spitsbergen, the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean. The width of the stream is 70-90 km in the south, increases to 100-120 km at the latitude of the Hatteras Strait and covers ocean waters to a depth of 0.7-0.8 km. The annual thermal power of the Gulf Stream is estimated at 1.4 10 15 J. The temperature on the surface of the stream reaches +25 ° C in the Gulf of Mexico, and its speed is 6-10 km/h and decreases to 3-4 km/h near the Newfoundland Bank. The warm waters of the Gulf Stream heat the lower atmosphere above the ocean, and westerly winds carry this heat to Europe.
The temperature regime of the Gulf Stream is to a certain extent associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (oscillation - oscillations; NAO/NAO), which is formed under the influence of long-term variations in solar activity and also has a significant impact on changes in atmospheric circulation.
North Atlantic Oscillation- this is the variability of climate in the north Atlantic Ocean, which manifests itself primarily in changes in sea surface temperature, “ ...the index of which is estimated as the difference between the normalized surface pressure anomalies between the stations of Ponta Delgada (Azores) and Akureyri (Iceland), characterizing the state of the Azores maximum and the Icelandic minimum. Distinguishpositive phaseNorth Atlantic correlation (correlation, interconnection), when there is a negative ocean surface temperature anomaly in the Labrador, North Atlantic and Canary Currents and a positive one in the Gulf Stream, andnegative phasewhen things are reversed..." Excerpt from the monograph of Doctor of Geographical Sciences E. S. Nesterov. “North Atlantic Oscillation: Atmosphere and Ocean”, 2013
The North Atlantic Oscillation is one of the the most important characteristics large-scale atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere. It is expressed in all seasons of the year and manifests itself on a scale from several days to several centuries. Numerous US CLIVAR (Climatic Variability and Predictability) works show the influence of the NAO on the main hydrometeorological fields in the Atlantic-European region.
From an interview with Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences K.G. Levi:
“Climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere are associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is measured at 2 stations: one station is in the Canary Islands, the other in Iceland. And they (indicators) fluctuate: sometimes they increase on one level, then on another they decrease and vice versa. The Gulf Stream itself also either accelerates or slows down, which warms Europe. But there were cases when the Gulf Stream stopped moving, 10,000 - 11,000 years ago, when the melting of glaciers stopped in the last, Sartan period. Beneath the Canadian ice sheet there was a lake named after the explorer Agassiz. It was a huge lake, a freshwater lake, which at one moment splashed out into the Atlantic Ocean and cooled its surface, and the Gulf Stream could not work, there was no energy to move. There is also the Southern Oscillation, which is measured in the Southern Hemisphere and controls El Niño (negative index values) and La Niño (positive index values).
An important factor in climate change is played by katabatic winds that form over ice caps and flow into different sides to the region of warm seas.”
The essence of the SAC process consists in the redistribution of atmospheric masses between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic, while the transition from one NAO phase to another causes large changes in the wind field, heat and moisture transfers, intensity, number and trajectories of storms, etc.
Wind-driven surface currents such as the Gulf Stream move water from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean northward. These waters simultaneously cool and, eventually, due to increased density, sink to the bottom (forming the North Atlantic deep water mass). Dense waters at depths move in the direction opposite to the direction of wind currents. Although most of them rise back to the surface in the Southern Ocean, the oldest ones (with a transit time of about 1600 years) rise in the North Pacific Ocean. Thus, there is constant mixing between ocean basins, which reduces the difference between them and integrates the Earth's oceans into a global system. As water masses move, they constantly move both energy (in the form of heat) and matter (particles, solutes, and gases), so thermohaline circulation significantly influences the Earth's climate.
Third conclusion:the entry of a large amount of fresh cold water from the glacier caps into the ocean conveyor leads to a slowdown in the movement of the latter, which inevitably leads to cooling.
Notice how everything is connected. Only a single chain of events will lead humanity to an explanation of the periodicity of processes on the planet.
Consider the following block: Huaynaputina volcano eruption ash emissions from which impeded the penetration of solar radiation over a wide area.
During the second phase of the MLP, the Huaynaputina volcano erupted; the explosion received a VEI-6 index on an 8-point explosiveness scale (VEI - Volcanic Explosivity Index). Emissions of pumice, lava, and, in particular, tefta and ash, like a tent, obscured the passage of the flow of solar insolation.
Let's summarize the material written above. The planet's climate conventionally fluctuates from cooling to warming. After the MLP, temperature changes were observed, and, judging by the indisputable fact - the melting of glaciers, the last decade can be conventionally called a warming period (we will return to this later). The runoff of desalinated water from the glaciers does not evaporate anywhere, but is diluted, as we found out, by the Labrador Current, which dives and cools the Gulf Stream, which, losing strength, slows down. Remember the winter-spring of 2017 in Western Europe? Fountains in France and the canals of Venice froze, and before that - melting eternal ice Arctic. Further, this cooling “cyclone” slowly approaches the European part of the continent, after which Central part Russia, Siberia and so on in a circle.
That is, using the example of MLP, we found out that the current climate situation in the world is explainable, this is not a punishment from above, it is a complex of cosmic, atmospheric-hydrosphere processes controlled by solar activity.
From an interview with Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences K.G. Levi:
“I had an acquaintance, Georgy Vyacheslavovich Kuklin (1935-1999, Soviet and Russian astronomer, solar researcher, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences (1991), professor, Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation (1999)), who once suggested that once every 22 years the sun reverses its polarity. And as soon as it changes the poles, a restructuring of atmospheric flows immediately begins. If in the previous 22 years the west-east transport prevailed, i.e. humid, warm, Atlantic air came in, but now Arctic air has also been added to it. Therefore, pressure and temperature surges occur. And, therefore, a lot of snow falls, then frost hits somewhere, then somewhere there is a thaw in winter, when it is not supposed to happen. That is, this is all the result of solar and terrestrial interactions. In hydrometeorology, there are a lot of different parameters, but they are all measured for a maximum of 150 years. This is extremely insufficient to solve climate problems. We need very long series - 500-700 years.
If we consider, for example, MLP, why was it cold for 500 years? Because, back to the sun, there are minima in solar activity. The graphs show that when there are long-term warming events, which are associated with high solar activity, a large amount of solar energy reaches the surface of the earth. And then an alternation of short maxima and minima begins, and this combination of closely spaced maxima and minima leads to a general decrease (cooling) in temperature. And this is what we are seeing now: global warming is a fiction and a political scam, it has nothing to do with nature. It’s just that some energy supply companies are killing other companies. This is pure economic policy. So what about global warming? It's cold."
The mathematical model compiled by Kirill Georgievich until 2050 showed that the peak of climate change will occur in the 30s: global cooling, a weakening of the electromagnetic field that protects the Earth from galactic rays, and a continuation of the gradual cooling of the Earth’s core.
Viktor Ivanovich Voronin, Doctor of Biological Sciences:
“The climate has changed all my life. And it changed radically: it was both very cold and very warm. So this topic is not new. The problem is that we do not have accurate information about those time periods. We cannot compare - now it’s better, now it’s worse, now it’s going faster or slower, so we need very long series going back centuries. Geological sources of information can provide them. There the accuracy is thousands, hundreds of thousands of years, floating dates... What is studied more accurately are ice cores, but there is also an error of 2 to 10%, because ice is a floating, amorphous substance and there are no exact annual layers there. Trees have clearly defined annual rings: one year - one ring. And you can accurately establish, and modern methods Dendrochronology allows us to construct very long scales.”
Yuri Sergeevich Malyshev, Candidate of Geographical Sciences:
“When we are told about global warming, we need to keep in mind the essential point: it is that Western science is becoming more and more part of the market. It is often said that science is the production of scientific goods. Research is carried out to order, depending on the result. It is no longer a secret to anyone that the outcry that was raised about the ozone screen was a primitive order. It has long been clear that approximately the same thing is happening with global warming. Publications that have the opposite conclusions are either accepted reluctantly or not accepted at all.”
Vitaly Valentinovich Ryabtsev, ornithologist, candidate of biological sciences:
“In the 60s, winter ended much earlier [ed. we are talking about the Irkutsk region] than now. I remember very well how every year on February 23 a huge puddle appeared in our yard and it was impossible to play hockey. There is nothing like it now. Warmth comes much later. I remember very well that already on March 7 the streams were noisy. Now there has been nothing like this for many, many years. The month of May was a nice warm month. We started swimming on May 15 in the quarries on the Irkut River. Now it’s scary to even think about it. The flowering of bird cherry and apple trees began on May 15-20. I remember it very well. It's much later now. And in the Nukutsky region I worked, and local residents told me that in mid-May they swam, and in those years when I was there, it was possible to do ice fishing there.”
A few more examples confirming the cooling. August 2004. A record breaking record was recorded near a Japanese station called Fuji Dome in Antarctica. low temperature-91.2 degrees. In January 2010, the record low temperature in eastern Yakutia was -61.5 degrees - this is the lowest point in the entire Northern Hemisphere. Niagara Falls and the Hudson froze in the same month in 2014 and 2015.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences:
“Deep cooling will not occur immediately, because there is thermal inertia of the World Ocean. That is, the World Ocean not only absorbs, but also accumulates incoming solar energy. The thermal inertia of the World Ocean is approximately 20 plus or minus 8 years. Thus, the ocean will warm up only after 20 years after the solar radiation power increases, and, conversely, it begins to cool only after 20 years.
The global warming clamor that has risen across the world has been caused by a change in the planet's temperature of just 0.7 degrees over a period of more than 100 years. But I want to emphasize that since 1997, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been rising at the same pace as before. At the same time, over the past 17 years, the global temperature of the planet has not increased. Our temperatures are stabilizing. It is a fact. There has been no warming since 1997! The radiation power of the Sun has been consistently decreasing since 1990 and still continues to decrease at an accelerating rate. Since 1990, the Sun no longer warms the Earth as before.However, the resulting long-term deficit of incoming solar energy was not compensated by a decrease in the Earth’s own thermal energy radiated into space, since the Earth, which had not cooled down, thanks to the thermal inertia of the ocean, radiates heat into space in the same high volumes. This led to a long-term negative deviation of the Earth's average annual energy balance from the equilibrium state and to a corresponding change in the energy state of the Earth as a planet. As a result, the Earth has a negative average annual energy balance, which will lead to a gradual decrease in temperature. As a result, there are already signs of a deep cold snap. Well, for example, it has now been announced that the area of Antarctic ice (south pole) has reached maximum level. This is the second important indicator. Everyone was talking about how global warming would lead to rising sea levels and flooding of cities. In fact, the level of the World Ocean has practically not risen over the past 15-17 years. This is also a fact."
Elena Petrovna Popova, senior researcher, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Physics, Moscow State University:
“Solar activity is cyclical. There are several cycles with different periods and properties. The most famous of them are 11-year, 90-year and 300-400-year.
The main result of our work, which caused such excitement among the public, is the statement that in the period from 2030 to 2040, a minimum of solar magnetic activity will begin. This result was presented in a report at the Royal Astronomical Society conference in Llandudno (Wales).The model explaining the occurrence of global minima is based on the process of generating a magnetic field in stars and planets, which is associated with the operation of the dynamo mechanism. An analogue of the operation of this mechanism is the operation of a dynamo. Unlike theories that consider one magnetic field wave, my theory considered the presence of two magnetic field waves, which were found empirically. My theoretical model was built on the basis of the fundamental mechanisms of generation of the solar magnetic field, and the results of this model were compared both with an array of observed data for magnetic fields for cycles 21-23, and with observed solar activity data on a 1000-year scale. At these scales, my model calculations turned out to be very close to the characteristics of solar magnetic activity. My model explains the processes observed and predicted from these data, but it was built independently of these data. It precisely explains them and reproduces the features of solar magnetic activity.
Using observed data on the solar magnetic field, we made a forecast of solar magnetic activity, supported by a physical model of field generation that we built, and found that a minimum may occur in 2030-2040, which will last approximately 30 years. If existing theories about the influence of solar activity on climate are correct, then this minimum will lead to significant cooling, similar to that which occurred during the Maunder minimum. Because our future minimum will last three solar cycles—about 30 years—the temperature drop may not be as deep as the Maunder minimum.
A number of works show the connection between solar activity and climate. There is no rigorous evidence that global warming is caused by human activity. There have been five global warmings and four ice ages over the past 400,000 years, according to studies of deuterium in Antarctica. However, even if human activity affects the climate, we can say that the Sun with a new minimum gives humanity additional time, or a second chance, for humanity to clean up its industrial emissions and prepare for cycle 28, when the Sun returns to normal activity again ".
It has already become traditional to end articles on the Geocentr.info portal with a call for unification. Now we will deviate a little from the rules and conduct a small experiment. Try to remember how you react in everyday life to someone stepping on your shoes or not giving up your seat on public transport? How do you react if your car gets cut off by another car? Remember similar cases... Now independently analyze whether you can respond adequately when there is a mass rush or evacuation, for example. Without preparation, namely without daily monitoring of yourself and your behavior, you will not be able to react and act wisely on a click. You need experience, you need to educate yourself, because it is you that the younger generation looks at and reads the model of behavior, it is you who are an example for your neighbor and the person standing next to you. The choice is yours.
You can learn about climate change from the programs "Climate Control on TV"
Prepared by: Ekaterina Ageichenko and Vitaly Afanasyev.
FIVE MAJOR WEATHER ANOMALIES
First, let's try to understand what is happening with the weather in Russia and throughout the planet. And then we’ll figure out who is to blame for this and what will happen next.
Vadim Zavodchenkov, leading specialist at the Phobos center, compiled for “KP” a rating of weather anomalies that Russia experienced in May and early June 2017:
1. Hurricane in Moscow.
Wind gusts reached 30 meters per second, which has never happened in the entire history of meteorological observations. The hurricane was caused by a cold front. “Such fronts always come with rain, thunderstorms and strong wind. And although the process is classic, the degree of its development is extraordinary, due to the large temperature contrasts intensified by the metropolis: the asphalt warms up one and a half times more than the ground, and the greater the temperature contrast, the higher the wind speed,” says Vadim Zavodchenkov. No weather anomaly has caused so much damage in such a long time. a short time- just a few hours.
2. Tornadoes in Tatarstan, Altai, and the Urals.
Extremely atypical phenomena for our country, especially at this time of year. This is the first time in history for Tatarstan; in Altai, tornadoes occur once every 10 years.
3. Cold temperature anomalies
The leader in cold weather is the center and the entire European part of Russia. Last May was the coldest in several decades, the temperature did not reach the climate norm by more than 3 degrees. Even in June we were hit by snowfall and night frosts! For the era of global warming in which we live, all this is very unusual.
4. Arctic invasions
But not all of Russia is freezing. In southern Siberia - Barnaul, Krasnoyarsk, Abakan, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk - heat records were broken in May. But even there, waves of extreme heat were replaced by equally sharp cold snaps. “Usually in May there are two intrusions of arctic air in Siberia; this year there were four of them in a month. Such sudden and frequent weather changes are also non-standard phenomena. By the way, they were the causes of tornadoes: icy air from the Arctic collided with hot air, powerful cumulus clouds formed in contrast, and tornado funnels swirled underneath them,” explains the meteorologist.
5. Heavy rains and flooding in the Stavropol region and other regions of the North Caucasus.
THE ARCTIC IS WARMING - WE ARE FREEZING
The reason for all these anomalies in 2017 - warm, cold, wet and windy - oddly enough, is the same. Global warming, - assures Vadim Zavodchenkov.
Where is the logic? He is ready to explain:
Cold air is denser and heavier than warm air - we know this from school. On a scale Globe cold air from the poles, due to its weight under the influence of gravity, “flows” to the southern latitudes. And since the planet rotates counterclockwise, if you look at the North Pole from above, in mid-latitudes air flows begin to move from west to east. This is how the west-east transfer of air masses arises, which creates normal weather that is familiar to us. Cyclones come to the center of Russia from the Atlantic, bring rain, go further to the Volga and the Urals, in the intervals between cyclones it is sunny and dry. But this is normal. It's different now.
It's extremely warm in the Arctic: Global warming at the poles is faster than the average on Earth. In the spring of 2017, the average temperature in Arctic latitudes was 3 degrees higher than normal; in winter anomalies reached 6 degrees. The ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in April was a record low for this time of year. A open water It is always warmer than ice, which also causes the air temperature to rise.
What's the result? The flow of cold air into southern latitudes is not as strong as usual. As a result, the west-east jet, which carries cyclones along their usual paths, also weakens. Instead, they rush around in a sinusoid: sometimes from north to south, sometimes from south to north. It is called meridional transport of air masses, and it increasingly determines our weather. The frequent Arctic invasions that I spoke about are precisely of this nature. Air from the north “falls” far to the south.
A cold May in the European part of Russia - the result of the so-called blocking. This is when meridional flows are squeezed by anticyclones and cannot move anywhere - the air flows from north to south or from south to north for weeks. Remember the heat of 2010? It was a blocking process. Now too, but with a different acquaintance. For a whole month, Moscow and neighboring regions received only cold air from the north.
Our expert is supported and Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization Petteri Taalas:
The poles influence weather in lower latitudes, where hundreds of millions of people live. Arctic warming and shrinkage sea ice associated with extreme events such as prolonged cold spells, heat waves and droughts in the northern hemisphere, he quotes from the official WMO statement.
NOT JUST WARMING
In fact, any hints about global warming now sound like a mockery. Is snow in June your vaunted global warming? And the fact that on June 15 in Moscow is +15 degrees, too? Well, thank you!
What is happening to the climate on a scale not only of Russia, but of the entire planet? Tells Alexey Kokorin, Head of the Climate and Energy Program at the World Fund wildlife(WWF) in Russia:
- The planet Earth is definitely warming, and this is not my opinion, but a scientific, proven fact. But it's not that simple.
Yep, we already guessed it. If it were just warming, it would be hot now! I just want to be sarcastic. But let's listen further:
In all the oceans of the planet, the upper layer of water is gradually warming up, to a depth of 700 - 1000 meters. And even at a depth of 2 kilometers there is a noticeable increase in temperature. And the ocean is the main element of the climate system. The atmosphere, unlike the ocean, is very mobile and changeable. AND If there is definitely warming in the ocean, then in the atmosphere there is climate change.
Indeed: almost all scientific (not Internet-newspaper) publications use this very term - climate change, climate change, not global warming. Not because there is no warming. But because Warming is not the only and not the worst thing that is happening to the climate.
What's the worst thing? And what to do with it? Read on.
IN Central Russia there will be no summer, and there is abnormal heat in Siberia
So, world scientists have declared 2017 to be the year of the threat of the Beginning of the End of Humanity. Another cooling cycle has begun on Earth. This joint statement was made by a number of world scientific organizations and academies:
Commission for Agricultural Meteorology
Commission for Atmospheric Science
Australian Academy of Sciences
Brazilian Academy of Sciences
Royal Society of Canada
Caribbean Academy of Sciences
Chinese Academy of Sciences
French Academy of Sciences
German Academy of Sciences, Leopoldina
Indian National Science Academy
Indonesian Academy of Sciences
Royal Irish Academy
Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy)
Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Turkish Academy of Sciences
Global Atmosphere Watch Program (GAW)
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
World Climate Program (WCP)
World Climate Research Program (WCRP)
World Weather Research Program (WWRP)
World Weather Watch Program (WWW)
In their address to the heads of the world's leading governments and the UN, scientists declared: “Humanity is in danger of its continued existence.”
Here are a few excerpts from the scientists:
“The made-up version of global warming does not stand up to criticism. Recent observations and analysis show catastrophic global climate change. The Little Ice Age is coming. This is due to many factors, including solar activity. The earth is going through another cycle. And in 2017 this is clearly visible. The period of Existential Threat to Humanity begins.”
Abrupt change in heat flow with temperature change for 2017:
Climate changes in Antarctica and the South Pole:
“According to data collected from all over the world, a catastrophic cooling scenario for the coming years is already visible. It has already begun. And humanity will feel this with all its might within 4-6 years.”
We also need to take into account the sharp decrease in average water temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the northeastern Atlantic Ocean:
In addition, we must not forget that in last years intermediate water masses are cooling at a catastrophic rate of 0.9°C from the medieval climate anomaly during the Little Ice Age.
Also look at the total temperature variability in the QTP. Using the example of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau's rapid response to recent changes:
And Greenland:
In general, you can see a close connection between solar activity and the process that occurs:
Representing one of the most severe global climate instabilities during the Holocene, the Little Ice Age (LIA) was marked by many hours of cooling (14th to 19th centuries CE). The cooling was mainly due to reduced solar activity and was particularly pronounced during the solar minima of 1645-1715. AD and 1790-1830 n. e. Which are known as the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum, respectively. And here it comes again.
Falling temperatures in the South China Sea indicate the start of another cold spell:
“Now every day we will observe more and more abnormal weather records. All countries of the world will be subject to the global impacts of weather and climate change due to the onset of the Little Ice Age. Everything will shift and break. The infrastructure of all countries will begin to collapse due to their unpreparedness. Many countries are facing famine."
The example of Russia shows that it is already shocked by the start of LIA this year. The whole world has recently been talking about Russia's abnormal weather. Tornadoes, hurricanes, tornadoes, summer snowfalls and frosts. Even Russian climatologists and weather forecasters are shocked by what has befallen their country. Russia is facing crop failure due to abnormal weather, as their experts said. Some Russian politicians have put forward versions about climate weapons, with the help of which Russia’s enemies attacked their country.
But all this is just the BEGINNING. And not only in Russia. Now ALL countries, the WHOLE world, will be subject to global changes for the worse. And humanity needs to get used to this idea, not look for enemies on the side, but prepare for hard times and completely change your life.
“We call on the Governments of all countries to take our Statement seriously. Humanity is threatened by a danger to its continued existence that modern civilization has not yet encountered. It is only in your power to prepare your countries for the onset of a terrible period that threatens life on Earth. Only together can we preserve it.”
We were warned about this since 2013. And then the first signs of the approaching LIA began.
Let's remember just some of the messages from that year that shocked us:
Romania experienced October snow for the first time in history.
Germany: the harshest winter in 200 years has begun
Abnormal cold and snow are killing people in America
New record for lowest temperature on Earth set in Antarctica
Abnormal weather in Syria. War in the snow
In 2014 natural and weather anomalies continued to gain momentum, but there were already so many of them that we will not list them all. Just a few:
Russia, in the Chelyabinsk region, snow fell in the middle of summer.
We are witnessing a stop of the Gulf Stream. New data from The Earth Wind Map and The NOAA Data Satellite unanimously show that the Gulf Stream is now much colder than before. And not in one area, but in two!
The Middle East is covered in snow. Scientists are sounding the alarm. A new “Ice Age” is on its way
and in the same year scientists began to tell the truth:
Climatologist John L. Casey, who collaborated with NASA, said that a radical shift in the global climate has arrived, and the weather pattern on the planet is not an accident, and such a pattern is established here for decades to come. According to him, global cooling is coming, and it is accelerating. And if the scientific community and political leaders will not act in the near future, dark and cold days and nights await us.
He warned that mass death of people and food riots awaited the planet ahead. The reason is the upcoming extremely cold 30-year period.
2015.
1. The Scary Global Climate Status Report (GCSR) is out: Humanity is entering a new Ice Age:
“Climate chaos is coming. The Little Ice Age is coming.
The Space and Research Corporation (SSRC) is an independent research institute based in Orlando, Florida, USA.
The SSRC has become the leading research organization in the United States on the science and planning for the next climate change associated with an extended Ice Age. The organization's particular concern is to warn governments, the media and people to prepare for these new climate changes that will take an eon.
In addition to the cold weather of this new climate era, the SSRC believes, as do other scientists and geologists, that there is a high probability of record volcanic eruptions and earthquakes that will occur during the next climate change."
2. A record stretch of cold water has been found in the North Atlantic, leaving some scientists baffled. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently discovered this record-breaking cold spot. This fact is consistent with our models, which warn that we are not in global warming, but in abnormal cooling.
3. Crushing blizzards, blizzards and sub-zero temperatures threaten humanity for the next fifty years - and possibly decades more.
Climate experts are warning of a rare cooling pattern in the North Atlantic that will cause... chain reaction events, and they will lead to a “full” Ice Age.
2016
1. Russia. As Russian media reported, a temperature of minus 62 degrees was recorded for the first time in Ugra. This has never happened before.
And in 2017, we already see and understand that something is wrong with the weather and climate. This worries and worries us greatly. All of us, ordinary people. Now we know from scientists what is coming and what threatens us. Each of us should try to prepare for the coming cold and hungry times. After all, as stated by Mekbib Haile, a researcher at the Center for Research Development at the University of Bonn (Germany), such climate change threatens humanity with hunger. This will lead to a complete decline in global production of major crops.
As we see, the upcoming LIA poses a threat to all countries.
It is now becoming clear that America, like the whole world, is on the threshold of events that will completely change the life of mankind. More precisely, that part of humanity that can survive.
It is a pity that not all country leaders understand this. So the President of America, having received the latest reports from his scientists on this issue, instead of starting to prepare his country and his people to face this natural disaster, begins to make incomprehensible moves.
Many sane Americans cannot understand what is happening. So the famous American activist and insider Dave Hodges asks the question: Why is the American army being withdrawn from the United States?
“Most of America's military units are located outside the country. Their numbers are increasing every day in Afghanistan, Iraq, on the Syrian border, Somalia, Yemen, Korea, on the eastern border of Russia, and near Venezuela, they are not at home. No one will protect the people if something happens in this country. Who will be left to protect people?
Today we must ask the question, why are all combat troops being withdrawn outside the United States?”
original translation
Although, here's another option.
A famous Russian scientist predicts the onset of global cooling within five years.
Global warming will be replaced by cooling in just five years, says Nikolai Zavalishin, head of the department of hydrometeorology and ecology of the Siberian Regional Research Hydrometeorological Institute (SibNIHMI).
According to the scientist, by 2022 the average air temperature in the world will increase by another 1.1 degrees. “After this there will be a gradual decline, no matter how much people burn hydrocarbons,” TASS quotes him as saying.
And people are not to blame
In general, Zavalishin, unlike many colleagues, does not connect global warming with the anthropogenic factor. In his opinion, this phenomenon is of a natural nature. It is caused by a decrease in the Earth's albedo - the percentage of solar energy reflected into space.
Periods of increase and decrease in temperature on the Blue Planet have happened before, the scientist recalled, they are of a recurring nature. According to him, each cycle consists of 10 years of rapid warming and 40-50 years of slow “cooling.”
Zavalishin also drew attention to the fact that 2015–2016 were the warmest years in Russia in the long-term history of meteorological observations. The Arctic is “warming” especially intensively: in the summer of 2016, the minimum area of ice cover was noted. But, according to the weather forecaster, we should not expect large-scale melting of glaciers.
Aleksey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy program at WWF, partly agrees with him. Indeed, the previous two years were very hot not only in Russia, but throughout the world, he notes. Temperatures were almost one degree above the levels of the early and mid-20th century.
The expert attributes this to the influence of the climate phenomenon El Niño (Spanish El Niño - “baby, boy”), which gave approximately 0.15−0.18 additional degrees. Now the capricious natural “child” is retreating. “2017-2018 in the world as a whole will be colder than 2016,” the expert predicts.
Before El Niño came into play, global warming was somewhere between 0.8 and 0.82 degrees. And, if we extend this trend, an increase of 1.1 degrees by 2022 seems quite reasonable to the expert. But he does not agree that the cooling will become quite prolonged, and still considers the anthropogenic factor to be the main culprit of long-term climate change.
Ice Age is canceled
“Indeed, there are calculations based on solar cycles, according to which there will be a certain minimum somewhere in the 30s, maybe 40s. And global temperatures could drop by about 0.25 degrees. However, if we take the second assessment report of the Russian Federation (this is a very thorough work), then this decrease will be a temporary phenomenon. This does not mean that the cooling will last forever. Let’s say, the temperature will be lower for a couple of decades, and then it will rise again,” explains Kokorin.
In general, it is not very clear what kind of natural cycles we are talking about, the scientist notes. There are quite a lot of the same solar cycles: the well-known eleven-year, as well as forty-five and sixty-year, plus centennial quasi-cycles and others.
“If all these cycles overlap, we will have what they like to call the Little Ice Age in Europe. When Peter I went to Holland, everyone there skated on the canals because they were covered with ice. This is also possible. Another thing is that solar experts do not predict this for the 21st century,” says the climatologist.
In addition to the solar ones, there are also ocean cycles, and also separate ones - the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, the same El Niño, the five-year cycle in the Arctic. Significantly influence the climate and powerful eruptions volcanoes. When their emissions are introduced into the atmosphere, cooling immediately occurs for a fairly long period (up to decades), far exceeding the consequences of human activity.
But all these natural phenomena and cycles are local in nature, end sooner or later, and also cancel each other out, while the human factor acts constantly, gradually increasing the greenhouse effect.
The Age of Global Warming
“It turns out that the anthropogenic trend, on average for the 21st century, makes the main component. Precisely because the sun is here and there. And this is a continuous trend, albeit a small one,” notes Kokorin.
He explains that more than 90% of the climate system's energy comes from the ocean. Over the past 30–40 years, the upper layer of all oceans, including the Arctic, has been warming up. Due to this, water expands, ice melts, and the level of the World Ocean rises. And this is due to a slight increase in the greenhouse effect. More heat that comes from the Earth is retained.
“At the same time, there are a lot of variations, a lot of everything in the changeable and fast atmosphere: this way, now that, the Sun influenced, then volcanoes erupted. It's like a dog's tail. But no matter how the tail spins - now in the cold, now in the heat - the main body, the carcass, warms up. Therefore, there is no doubt that the 21st century is the century of global warming, despite the fact that a variety of things can happen in the atmosphere, but more short-term ones,” the scientist concludes.